In other words, how healthy are you? An easy place to start is to determine how often you see the doctor, take prescription medications or visit a medical facility each year:
If you only see your doctor a couple times a year for simple check-ups and preventative care, you will want a plan that offers low monthly payments in exchange for basic coverage. Consider a Bronze or Silver tier plan. Use the money you save in monthly payments to contribute to an HSA so you're ready to pay your higher deductible if necessary.
If you see the doctor frequently and need to treat or manage an chronic illness, you will want a "richer" plan that offers a lot of health care benefits and allows you to see your doctor at an affordable price. Consider Gold or Platinum plans with higher monthly payments and expansive benefits.